TL;DR — The Cost Signal VMware Vs OpenShift
- TCO depends on your per-core subscription reality. In our model, OpenShift becomes cheaper when your effective VMware cost exceeds ~$830 per core-year (3-year horizon, small estate). The break-even drops to ~$705 per core-year at larger scale.
- With list-like pricing (e.g., ~$950/core-year), our examples show OpenShift TCO is 9–18% lower across Small/Medium/Large estates over 3 years (full numbers below).
- Savings improve with scale, storage consolidation (Ceph/ODF), and ops efficiency (managed OpenShift), and when you offset VMware bundles you no longer need.
- Read the assumptions carefully then swap your numbers to mirror your environment.
Want a tailored number? Model your TCO with our assessment → vmware to openshift migration
What This Analysis Covers
- VMs on both platforms: VMware vSphere/VCF vs OpenShift Virtualization (KubeVirt) on Red Hat OpenShift.
- Apples-to-apples TCO: licenses/subscriptions, compute HW, storage, support, power/cooling, and ops effort.
- Time horizons: 3-year baseline with guidance for 5-year extension.
- Hosting models: on-prem and “managed OpenShift”; quick notes for colo & sovereign cloud.
Who this is for: Decision-makers needing a defendable budget model for board/steering committees especially where Broadcom licensing changes and VMware Exit Strategy planning are active.
Baseline Assumptions & Sizing Models
1) Reference Estates (S / M / L)
We size by worker hosts (48 physical cores/host) plus control-plane where needed.
| Estate | Worker Hosts | Physical Cores (Workers) | Usable Storage (TB) |
| S | 3 | 144 | 20 |
| M | 6 | 288 | 60 |
| L | 12 | 576 | 180 |
OpenShift adds 3 control-plane nodes (smaller: 16 cores each) for cluster quorum.
2) Workload Mix & Utilization
- Mixed infra (app, DB, middleware) with typical enterprise utilization.
- Headroom, HA, and platform overhead are baked into host counts above (keeps the model simple and fair).
3) Hosting Models
- On-prem (self-managed) for baseline comparability.
- Managed OpenShift operations profile (lower FTE, MSP retainer).
- Colo & sovereign cloud notes appear later (pricing varies by region/provider).
4) Time Horizon & Discounting
- 3-year base.
- For 5-year, add 2 more years of licenses, support, power/cooling, and optionally a mid-life refresh uplift (we show how below).
Cost Components Compared (Apples to Apples)
A) Platform Licensing / Subscriptions (per core-year)
We parameterize two key inputs:
- VMware effective per-core-year: P (varies widely by bundle/discount; we’ll show break-evens).
- OpenShift workers: $700/core-year (illustrative).
- OpenShift control-plane: $200/core-year (48 cores total).
- OpenShift Data Foundation (ODF) / storage SW: $150/TB-year.
Using different price sheets? No problem swap your values for “P” and the OpenShift rates and the math updates immediately.
B) Compute (Servers/Hosts)
- Per worker host (3-yr total): $12,000 (purchase) + $4,320 (3 yrs support @12%/yr) + $1,800 (power/cooling @ $600/yr) = $18,120.
- OpenShift control-plane (3 nodes, 16 cores each, 3-yr total): $18,000 purchase + $6,480 support + $5,400 power = $29,880.
C) Storage
- VMware (external SAN/HCI support): $220/TB-year (support/subscription).
- OpenShift (ODF/Ceph): modeled above as $150/TB-year subscription.
D) Operations (People + Optional MSP)
- Costed as FTE equivalents over 3 years ($180k per FTE over 3 years, i.e., $60k/yr benchmark).
- VMware: S=0.6 FTE ($108k), M=1.0 FTE ($180k), L=1.8 FTE ($324k).
- OpenShift (Managed): S=0.4 FTE + MSP $30k ($102k), M=0.8 + MSP $54k ($198k), L=1.2 + MSP $96k ($312k).
If you self-manage OpenShift, increase FTE; if you co-manage, tune the MSP retainer.
3-Year TCO — Real Numbers (with Clearly Stated Assumptions)
We present three estates using P = $950/core-year for VMware (illustrative “list-like” scenario).
Swap P to match your quote to see your TCO instantly.
Small (S): 3 hosts (144 cores), 20 TB
VMware TCO (3 yrs)
- Licenses: 144 cores × $950 × 3 = $410,400
- Compute HW: 3 × $18,120 = $54,360
- Storage Support: 20 TB × $220 × 3 = $13,200
- Ops: $108,000
Total: $585,960
OpenShift TCO (3 yrs)
- OCP Workers: 144 × $700 × 3 = $302,400
- OCP Control-plane: 48 × $200 × 3 = $28,800
- ODF (storage SW): 20 × $150 × 3 = $9,000
- Compute HW: 3 × $18,120 + control-plane $29,880 = $84,240
- Ops (Managed): $102,000
Total: $535,440
Result: OpenShift cheaper by $50,520 (≈ 8.6%).
Medium (M): 6 hosts (288 cores), 60 TB
VMware TCO (3 yrs)
- Licenses: 288 × $950 × 3 = $820,800
- Compute HW: 6 × $18,120 = $108,720
- Storage Support: 60 × $220 × 3 = $39,600
- Ops: $180,000
Total: $1,149,120
OpenShift TCO (3 yrs)
- OCP Workers: 288 × $700 × 3 = $604,800
- OCP Control-plane: 48 × $200 × 3 = $28,800
- ODF: 60 × $150 × 3 = $27,000
- Compute HW: 6 × $18,120 + $29,880 = $138,600
- Ops (Managed): $198,000
Total: $997,200
Result: OpenShift cheaper by $151,920 (≈ 13.2%).
Large (L): 12 hosts (576 cores), 180 TB
VMware TCO (3 yrs)
- Licenses: 576 × $950 × 3 = $1,641,600
- Compute HW: 12 × $18,120 = $217,440
- Storage Support: 180 × $220 × 3 = $118,800
- Ops: $324,000
Total: $2,301,840
OpenShift TCO (3 yrs)
- OCP Workers: 576 × $700 × 3 = $1,209,600
- OCP Control-plane: 48 × $200 × 3 = $28,800
- ODF: 180 × $150 × 3 = $81,000
- Compute HW: 12 × $18,120 + $29,880 = $247,320
- Ops (Managed): $312,000
Total: $1,878,720
Result: OpenShift cheaper by $423,120 (≈ 18.4%).
Sensitivity: Your Break-Even “P” (VMware $/core-year)
Where VMware TCO = OpenShift TCO (3-year):
- S (3 hosts): P ≈ $833/core-year
- M (6 hosts): P ≈ $775/core-year
- L (12 hosts): P ≈ $705/core-year
Rule-of-thumb: the larger your estate, the lower the VMware price needed to match OpenShift. If your negotiated VMware effective rate (after bundles/discounts) is above the break-even, OpenShift likely wins on TCO before counting modernization benefits.
5-Year View: How to Extend the Model
For a quick 5-year estimate:
- Add 2 more years of platform subscriptions (VMware cores × P × 2, OpenShift workers/masters/ODF ×2).
- Add 2 years of support & power/cooling (per host per year × number of hosts × 2).
- Optionally, include a mid-life hardware uplift (e.g., +20–30% in years 4–5 for growth or partial refresh).
- Apply your discount rate (e.g., 8–10%) if you need NPV.
This typically widens OpenShift’s advantage in the medium/large estates when VMware effective P is ≥ break-even.
Hosting Model Notes (On-Prem, Colo, Sovereign, Managed)
- On-prem: You control capex; savings hinge on per-core pricing and storage strategy (SAN vs Ceph/ODF).
- Colo: Add cage/rack power fees; still similar dynamics; you may reduce power/cooling variance.
- Sovereign (e.g., KSA): Data residency & compliance (PDPL/NCA ECC/SAMA) often favor OpenShift modernization with clear evidence packs and logs/SSO/SIEM integration.
- Managed OpenShift: Shifts ops burden to an MSP, generally improving predictability and reducing FTE variance.
Where Savings Actually Come From (Beyond Licenses)
- Toolchain consolidation: OpenShift (with ODF, GitOps, native logging/monitoring options) replaces multiple third-party tools.
- Standardized automation: GitOps, Operators, and day-2 automation shrink toil.
- Right-sizing & bin-packing: Kubernetes scheduling often improves density over static VM estates.
- Future-proofing: You get one control plane for VMs + Containers, reducing parallel platform costs.
Assumptions You Should Swap for Your Organization
Change these to match quotes and policy:
- VMware effective $ per core-year (P).
- OpenShift per-core rates (workers/control-plane) & ODF $ per TB-year.
- Host purchase cost, support %, and energy cost.
- FTE cost, and whether you’ll self-manage vs managed OpenShift.
- Storage approach (SAN vs ODF) and retained third-party tools.
Risks, Caveats & Gotchas
- Discounts matter. Your procurement leverage can swing TCO by double-digits.
- Overheads vary by workload. Latency-sensitive DBs or GPU nodes may shift host counts.
- Runway costs. Parallel run during migration (dual-running both platforms) should be budgeted separately.
- Compliance scope. Logging, SIEM, IAM/SSO, backup/DR tooling: include what you must evidence.
Executive Conclusion
- If your VMware effective price (after bundles/discounts) sits above $705–$833 per core-year (scale-dependent), OpenShift Virtualization is likely to deliver lower 3-year TCO and the advantage compounds with scale and tool consolidation.
- Even near break-even, strategic modernization (one control plane for VMs + containers) often tips the business case in favor of OpenShift.
Next step: Get a defensible, board-ready number.
Model your TCO with our assessment → /vmware-to-openshift-migration/
FAQs — Cost & TCO: VMware vs OpenShift Virtualization
1) What is the real TCO difference in vmware vs openshift cost?
Using the baseline model, at ~$950/core-year for VMware, OpenShift Virtualization is ~9–18% cheaper over 3 years across small, medium, and large estates. Your outcome depends on your negotiated per-core price, storage approach, and ops model.
2) What’s the break-even VMware price per core-year vs OpenShift?
Approx. $833 (small), $775 (medium), $705 (large) per core-year. If your effective VMware price is above those thresholds, OpenShift typically wins on 3-year TCO.
3) Which cost components should I compare “apples to apples”?
Subscriptions/licenses (per core and per TB), compute hardware, storage software/support, operations (FTE or MSP), and power/cooling—plus a separate line for migration/dual-run overhead.
4) Does OpenShift require extra hardware vs VMware?
Mainly three small control-plane nodes for the cluster; worker host counts are comparable. This overhead is already included in the sizing model.
5) How do storage costs compare (VMware SAN/HCI vs ODF/Ceph)?
In our assumptions: VMware SAN/HCI support is ~$220/TB-year vs OpenShift Data Foundation at ~$150/TB-year. Actuals vary by vendor and discounts.
6) Will managed OpenShift change my operations cost?
Usually yes. Example model: VMware ops ~0.6/1.0/1.8 FTE (S/M/L) vs OpenShift managed ~0.4/0.8/1.2 FTE plus a predictable MSP retainer—reducing toil and variance.
7) Over five years, which platform is cheaper?
If your VMware per-core price is above break-even, the 5-year view typically widens OpenShift’s advantage due to compounding subscriptions and tool consolidation.
8) Can OpenShift run VMs without refactoring?
Yes. OpenShift Virtualization (KubeVirt) runs many workloads as-is on OpenShift. You can migrate VMs first, then modernize selectively.
9) How do I estimate per-VM cost accurately?
Compute 3-year TCO ÷ (VM count × 3). For precision, weight by vCPU-to-core ratios and storage/TB per VM and include backup/DR where applicable.
10) What risks can erode savings in vmware vs openshift cost?
Underestimating dual-run duration, over-provisioning hardware, keeping redundant tools, or using unrealistic FTE/MSP assumptions can dilute TCO gains.
11) Do licensing bundles and discounts change the math?
Definitely. VMware bundles can push the effective core price below break-even; conversely, OpenShift consolidation (ODF, GitOps, integrated logging) can increase its advantage.
12) How does OpenShift help with KSA compliance (PDPL, NCA ECC, SAMA)?
OpenShift supports RBAC/SSO, encryption, audit logging, and SIEM integrations and pairs well with local hosting for data residency—simplifying evidence packs.
13) When should I expect payback?
If VMware pricing is above break-even and dual-run is time-boxed, payback often occurs within the migration horizon. Validate with your actual quotes, estate size, and cadence.
14) What’s the fastest way to get my own numbers?
Plug your negotiated VMware per-core price, OpenShift quotes, host counts, TB, and FTE/MSP rates into the model—or request a tailored assessment.
